Scenario Development

Developing scenarios – the story so far                                               

Let’s Get Wellington Moving is developing packages of possible transport solutions – called scenarios - to help meet the public’s aspirations for how the city looks, feels, and functions, and support Wellington’s growth, while making it safer and easier for people to get around.

We’re working to present a short list of scenarios to the public for feedback in late 2017.

This process involves examining a wide range of ideas – or possible interventions - about how to improve transport in Wellington, combining the more promising interventions into possible scenarios, evaluating these scenarios against our programme principles and objectives, and selecting a short list.

Here’s what we’ve done so far.

Gathering and collating ideas and data

In 2016 Let’s Get Wellington Moving started a conversation with the people of Wellington about the city’s transport challenges. More than 10,000 people responded.

At the same time, we gathered extensive data about our transport network. We’re using this information to better understand travel patterns and to help build a series of transport models and assessment tools to support decisions on Wellington’s transport future.

Developing assessment criteria

We used the public’s feedback to develop 12 guiding principles and to help identify the key problems on the network. Then we defined the objectives for the Let’s Get Wellington Moving programme.

Our objectives are to develop a transport system that:

  • Enhances the liveability of the central city
  • Provides more efficient and reliable access for users
  • Reduces reliance on private vehicle travel
  • Improves safety for all users
  • Is adaptable to disruptions and future uncertainty

We then took our guiding principles and our programme objectives and developed assessment criteria. We will use the assessment criteria help evaluate possible options for Wellington’s transport future.

Shaping an initial list of scenarios

As part of the public feedback, members of the public gave us almost 2500 ideas.

Alongside this, staff from Wellington City Council, Greater Wellington Regional Council, and the NZ Transport Agency, together with members of the LGWM team and external consultants, held a workshop to generate ideas.

We also looked at earlier work on Wellington’s transport options. For example, public transport ideas were considered alongside the 2014 Public Transport Spine Study (PTSS). The PTSS recommended a high-quality bus rapid transit route along the public transport ‘spine’ from the central city to Newtown and Kilbirnie.

We collated and shaped the many ideas into an initial long list of possible scenarios (a scenario is a package of possible interventions or ideas). Each of the long list scenarios proposed different levels of intervention for different transport modes. For example, a scenario might include a high degree of cycling intervention, a medium level of public transport intervention, and a business-as-usual approach to local roads.

Multi-Criteria Assessment (MCA) workshops

In November 2016 we held two MCA workshops, run by an independent facilitator. These workshops were designed to complete an initial high-level evaluation of each scenario against the assessment criteria. The notes from the workshops are available here.

You can see a description of the scenarios in the initial long list and their results against the assessment here.

The MCA workshops told us that the scenarios which scored the best in the assessment had a balanced range of interventions.  This suggests Wellington’s transport problems are best addressed with a multi-modal approach – a mix of improvements across different modes such as improvements to walking and cycling facilities, better public transport, and improvements to roads, rather than focusing on improving just one mode.

More information about the scenario long list process is available here.

Community and stakeholder workshops

In March and April we sought feedback at a mid-point in our scenario development process in a series of community and stakeholder workshops, facilitated by independent research company UMR.

We wanted to check we’re heading in the right direction. We also wanted to get people’s views on how we should present a short list of scenarios to the public later in the year.

We took the scenarios that scored well in the MCA workshops and grouped most of the large-scale interventions into four focus areas:

  1. Better public transport
  2. Improving the state highway
  3. Active transport improvements (walking and cycling)
  4. Managing travel demand

A copy of the workshop presentation is available here.

In each focus area we listed what’s already planned and possible levels of further intervention – from not doing much to doing a great deal. We also examined how each of the focus areas would be just one part of a possible transport solution, how the focus areas work together, and how they would impact on each other.

Attendees discussed some of the compromises and trade-offs that would need to be made to develop solutions. And they told us what kind of information they want to see when we present a short list of scenarios to the public. This includes things such as:

  • Evidence that supports each scenario
  • Which interventions we have rejected and why
  • Descriptions of land use and planning constraints
  • Costs for each scenario
  • How each scenario fits into an integrated and holistic plan for the city and the region
  • Details about specific interventions

UMR has gathered feedback from the workshops into a report here.

Next steps

We’re using the feedback from the community and stakeholder workshops, along with the results of the assessment of the initial long list of scenarios, to help develop a more detailed short list of scenarios for the public to consider.

Our next steps include:

  • Gathering further information that attendees asked for at the community and stakeholder workshops
  • Using a range of decision-making tools, including transport models, to test and develop possible interventions
  • Developing and refining possible scenarios and testing them against our assessment criteria to create a short list
  • Releasing as much transport data as practicable so people can understand what our work is based on
  • Continuing our conversations with stakeholder groups to get their insights into the issues important to them

We’ll then publish a short list of scenarios and run a public engagement programme so Wellingtonians can have their say.

To allow this work to be completed, public engagement is scheduled for November 2017.

More information about our programme is available here.


Economic growth and other plans

We know we want Wellington to be one of the best places to live in the world – smart, dynamic, people-centred, eco-friendly and connected: Towards 2040: Smart Capital

We also have ambitious plans to grow our economy by attracting more smart businesses, research institutes and students.

Plans include a longer runway, more flights, and exciting new facilities and attractions like the combined new movie museum and convention centre to bring more people here.

The Wellington Urban Growth Plan – developed in 2015 with community input – is about:

  • being a smart, vibrant, sustainable and even more people-centred place
  • having  a dynamic central city
  • looking after our environment, including our unique harbour, coastline and hills
  • being better prepared for earthquakes and climate change affects like sea-level rise
  • and keeping the city compact, walkable and supported by an efficient transport network.

Any options developed through this project will be guided by these and other already agreed city and regional plans.

Wellington towards 2040: Smart Capital

Wellington Urban Growth Plan

Wellington City's 10-year plan

Wellington Regional Land Transport Plan 2015

 

Wellington's Transport History

Wellington’s geography has dictated the location and form of transportation links, from the earliest Māori settlements through to the first land surveys in the 1840s and later European settlement. Many of the original routes continue to influence the transport planning efforts to shape the city.

 Wellington's Transport History (6MB PDF)